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Monday January 4th is THE DEADLINE
Make a resolution for 2010 that is easy. Sign the Johnson Street Bridge petition and make certain it is delivered to City Hall by 4:30 PM on Monday.
Canvassers will be out in force this weekend and for the final day. Saturday, Sunday and Monday look for Blue Bridge Petition volunteers in Cook St. Village, James Bay ’5 corners’ and on the corner of Blanshard and Fairfield, outside the Petition Campaign Office. Saturday, come down to Cabin 12 (on Pandora, across from City Hall) where you can drop your form or sign, and then enjoy brunch or lunch.
Volunteers are also cycling and driving collecting petitions from people who are unable to get to the office or City Hall.
Call the Blue Bridge Campaign Office – 250 590 4809 or email petition@johnsonstreetbridge.org for information on signing and delivering petitions.
Latest News
The Times Colonist published an Editorial on Thursday – Blue Bridge Decision Time – along with an article ‘Councillor Takes Aim at City’s Bridge Facts‘
Victoria News – ‘NEWSMAKER OF THE YEAR – The Blue Bridge‘
Easy New Year Resolution – Sign the Blue Bridge Petition
[...] This post was Twitted by matvic [...]
I just left a comment on the Vic News “Newsmaker of the Year” article you link to, above (and earlier today I posted a comment to Bill Cleverley’s Times-Colonist article, which you point to as well – the comment is now up).
My comment to Vic News is awaiting moderation, but since it’s posted through Disqus.com, you can already see it on my profile there. In case it fails to appear on the Vic News site for some reason, here it is in full. My starting point was that I take issue with the numeracy around throwing out the “35% chance over 50 years” info:
QUOTE
A 35% chance of collapse during an earthquake “over the next 50 years” does not add up to an imminent danger. What this calculation suggests is that the probability of collapse is lower in the immediate short-term, and then grows higher in the long-term. Thus, there might be a 1% chance in 2010, or a 4% chance in 2011, and the probability percentage increases as time goes by.
Adding up the percentages over a 50 year span, one arrives at a 35% chance.
This does not suggest to me that we should be hitting the panic button with immediate plans to replace the bridge.
It seems to me that the Engineering staff saw its chance when the Federal Infrastructure Stimulus Funding program was announced. Tired of fixing the old bridge on a budget of chewing gum and duct tape, they saw an opportunity to corral millions of dollars for a replacement. However, those funds did not materialize.
Therefore, it makes sense to take a closer (and more impartial) look at the generally excellent Delcan Report, and proceed with a program of repair.
There are options for seismic upgrading that do not entail making the bridge safe to Canadian Highway Bridge Design Codes (CHBDC). As Ed Wortman (Portland bridge engineering expert) pointed out in an email to Councilor Chris Coleman (published on our website with permission of the Wortmans):
Wortman then goes on to point to several U.S. jurisdictions (in the same earthquake zone as we are), which do not upgrade their urban bridges to that standard. Given that there are much higher priorities for seismic safety (all of Chinatown – a World Heritage Site – and Old Town will fall down in a major event, and there would certainly be more people killed by those buildings than there would by a bridge collapse), it seems wise to question the CHBDC standard and why it (a highway standard) should apply to an urban bridge in the center of the city.
UNQUOTE
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Good suggestion Yule, however, regarding the CHBDC, it’s really the only design code for bridges that engineers use in Canada (Except for Provincial addendums, railway bridge codes, or Forestry Bridge Codes).
The Canadian code may be a few years behind the leading American Version, AASHTO LRFD, which essentially forms the back bone of the Canadian Code and everything that’s eventually adopted by it, except for a few exceptions.
Other questions that I feel need to be asked so others can make the best decision based upon their most clear understanding (Scientists, like engineers, generally report the “worst Case scenario for the basis of the design”) are:
1) Does the CHBDC (aka. CAN/CSA S6-06) apply to this bridge specifically, or can the City Of Victoria specifiy another (I.e. the buiding code, AASHTO, etc)? If a provincial route jurisdiction, the MoT will enforce the CHBDC.
2) Who is dictating the Seismic Saftey Level that the exisiting bridge needs to attain: the client, the code, or the engineer? In the US, the client specifes it.
3) Can the existing historic structure be “grandfathered in”? This is generally the case with buidlings built before more stringent building codes: in this case, it doesn’t neccessarily need to be brought up to code.
4) Is the CHBDC (2006 Edition) the most current standard we can utilize, based upon the latest in earthquake research, rehabilitation strategies of existing bridges, etc? Especially if the American counterpart (AASHTO) is further ahead and possibly, more “up-to-date”.
5) Is the client’s risk assessment and level of seismic saftey requirement for the rehabilitation of a historic structure practical, well understood, and warrantied here? Can more risk of a lessor seismic requirement upgrade be accepted, and what are those risks? Loss of life or loss of route use? What is deemed acceptable and is it realistic?
6) Should a historic structure be compared with the assumed level of saftey of a new structure and it’s applicable code?
7) What are the failure mechanisms of the JSB during various levels of seismic events, including the failure that the Delcan report warns of? Instantaneous crumbling and no ability for the public to flee versus progressive collapse that gives time to clear the public from the structure are very different effects that the City needs to understand before assuming that upgrade means “the works”? This can be determined and could form a portion of the risk assessmnet that the City could grasp and understand.
9) Why did the Historic Assessment Report not form a part of the engineering report and decision? Why fund it in the first place and not utilize the professional’s conclusions and reccomendations?
10) Can the councellors and the city guaruntee on their personal careers and reputations to the people of Victoria that the new bridge will be on budget, on time, of the utmost quality, and at the same time, a future landmark? Surely a first if even two are met!
Good luck with the Petition!
Sincerely,
Mike